Stimulus Drives Bitcoin?? We Had it All WRONG!! 🤦‍♂️


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– TIMESTAMPS –
0:00 Intro
1:55 What Is The Federal Reserve?
3:46 Pandemic Stimulus Checks Background
6:04 How To Measure Impact
8:34 Did Checks Influence Price?
11:27 Effect in Other Countries
13:17 Stimulus Check Bitcoin Regulations
16:14 Conclusion

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⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️

► About The Cleveland FED: https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/about-us/the-cleveland-fed.aspx
► FED Bitcoin Stimmy Check Study: https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/working-papers/2021-working-papers/wp-2113-impact-of-covid19-stimulus-checks-on-retail-trading-in-bitcoin.aspx
► Kaiko Cryptocurrency Exchange Data: https://www.kaiko.com/
► Coinbase Retail Trader Investing Habits Study: https://blog.coinbase.com/around-the-block-6-bitcoins-dominance-alongside-coinbase-customer-behavior-the-coming-dex-c9d952ec6170
► Bitcoin Dominance Index: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D/

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👨‍🏫What Is The Federal Reserve?👨‍🏫

The Federal Reserve is the privately held ‘independent entity within the US government’ which issues federal reserve notes, AKA US dollars

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is one of the twelve regional banks which collectively make up the Federal Reserve system in the United States

💸Pandemic Stimulus Check Rollout💸

The FED was inspired to analyze the effects of stimmy checks on the crypto market after a tweet by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong in mid-April.
The tweet in question features an image which shows that there is a huge spike in buy orders and deposits on Coinbase in the 1200-dollar range

For those who don’t know why this figure is significant, 1200 dollars is how much every American was eligible to receive as part of the CARES act which was passed at the end of March 2020

🔎Measuring The Impact Of Stimmy Checks On Bitcoin🔎

First, the FED took trading data from Kaiko about BTC buy orders on 26 cryptocurrency exchanges between January 1st and June 5th, 2020

Then, they identified any buy orders at the 1200-dollar range and divided the initial timeframe into two periods: January 1st to April 9th, and April 9th to June 5th

This is because the first round of stimmy cheques were sent out on April 9th and the remainder were distributed in the weeks that followed

Logically, the FED predicted that there would be more 1200-dollar BTC buy orders between April and June than between January and April

📊Did Stimmy Checks Influence Bitcoin’s Price?📊

Of the nearly 270 billion dollars of stimulus money that was sent out to Americans, only about 58 million dollars found its way into BTC between April 9th and June 5th

This might sound like a lot, but its barely enough to push up the price of BTC by 5% on a single cryptocurrency exchange, much less the entire crypto market

According to the FED, stimmy payments only accounted for 3.8% of BTC trades by number and 0.7% of trades by value during that time period.

In terms of actual price, all the stimmy buy orders they analyzed – 1200, 1000, 600, 500, and 100 dollars, only managed to push up the price of Bitcoin by 0.22% between April 9th and June 5th

🌎Effect Of Stimulus In Other Countries On Bitcoin🌎

The FED looked at three countries for which there was ample exchange and stimulus data during the United States’ own funny money making. These are Japan, Singapore, and South Korea

The FED found that the number of BTC buy orders for foreign fiat denominated stimmy amounts spiked in Japan and South Korea, but not in Singapore

⚖Stimulus Check Bitcoin Regulations⚖

The main takeaways are that only 0.02% of all stimmy cheques were spent on Bitcoin, and this means that ‘policymakers should not be concerned about money being diverted to cryptocurrency markets when considering similar economic relief programs in the future’

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📜 Disclaimer 📜

The information contained herein is for informational purposes only. Nothing herein shall be construed to be financial legal or tax advice. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss. The speaker does not guarantee any particular outcome.

#Bitcoin #Stimulus #crypto #checks #fed

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